… and other managers’ views for 2020

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We’re all inundated with fund managers’ macro views at the best of times. And the start of the calendar year is not a best of time – we are currently being swamped. It’s difficult to find a manager’s view which does not merely match the consensus. Nevertheless, here’s a summary of the outlook courtesy of ‘Savvy Investor’, a free website.

The UK-based ‘Savvy Investor’ says it has collated a raft of institutional thought leadership offering divergent views on the prospects for economies and markets for 2020. “Amid the range of opinions, some more consensual views are emerging, most noticeably relating to the potential risks that markets might face in the next year,” the website says. “High on the list of things to consider are climate change risk and geopolitics, with the US presidential election and the Brexit trade deal outcomes featuring most prominently.” The summarised views are:
. Global Investment Committee: 2020 outlook (Nuveen, Dec 2019). Nuveen presents its outlook paper for 2020, which suggests that some of the more recent uncertainties and potential risks that have dogged the market over much of 2019 may be decreasing.

  • 2020 Investment Outlook (Wellington Management, Dec 2019).
    • Wellington Management’s investment teams come together to contribute their opinions and views on several of the major issues likely to affect global economic and investment markets in 2020.
  • 2020 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions (Invesco).
    • Invesco provides long-term (10-year) estimates for the major asset classes. The assumptions are provided to assist in strategic asset allocation decisions, and this latest paper summarises notable quarter-on-quarter changes to those return estimates.
  • 2020 Outlook: Coping with a changing market landscape (Franklin Templeton, Dec 2019).
    • Franklin Templeton’s report suggests a cautiously optimistic outlook for 2020 but also caveats that investors need to be selective amid changing market scenarios.
  • 2020 Economic Outlook: A Battle of Three Cycles (PineBridge, Nov 2019).
    • PineBridge’s chief economist, Markus Schomer, outlines the three primary forces that they see impacting upon the global outlook, namely macro, monetary policy and the political cycle. How these three cycles interact will largely determine outcomes for 2020.
  • 2020 Outlook: Expecting the Unexpected (UBS AM).
    • UBS Asset Management presents its comprehensive investment outlook for 2020 in this 20-page report.
  • 2020 Investment Outlook: Be agile to cope with diverging scenarios (Amundi AM).
    • In their 2020 outlook paper, Amundi AM suggests that after a bumper 2019, investors need to be alert and agile to cope with what they envisage could be potentially divergent investment scenarios in 2020.
  • Prospects for Global Potential Growth: The Next Decade (PGIM Fixed Income, Nov 2019).
    • In this paper from PGIM Fixed Income, they look at historical global GDP growth and examine the potential that growth may be on a declining trajectory through the next decade.
  • CIO 2020 Outlook: Year of Change (LGIM, Dec 2019).
    • In their 2020 Outlook paper, LGIM’s investment professionals outline their collective thoughts and opinions across asset classes, highlighting some of the potential risks and opportunities that lie ahead.
  • Looking into 2020 (Hermes IM, Dec 2019).
    • Hermes presents their 2020 Outlook paper, in which they highlight two significant risks for markets in 2020. Political risks are likely to be elevated, particularly in the U.K. (Brexit trade deal) and the USA (U.S. presidential election and U.S./China trade tensions). The second is climate change or reputational risk, where a range of companies and countries are likely to come under increasing pressure ahead of the COP 26 conference, which is due to be held in Glasgow in November.
  • Economic and market outlook for 2020: The new age of uncertainty (Vanguard).
    • Vanguard’s market strategists expect global economic growth to be lower than previously expected in 2020; as a result, interest rates are likely to be ‘lower for longer’ too. Uncertainty remains as a result of an unpredictable policy environment, creating a fragile backdrop for markets.
  • Global Investment Forum: Key themes (BMO GAM, Dec 2019).
    • This paper from BMO GAM highlights the likely market drivers over the medium term. Key themes discussed include; the end of globalization, decarbonization, the likelihood of a U.S. recession, structural changes affecting the German auto sector, and the desire for fiscal policies to take up the running from ultra-accommodative monetary policies.
  • Outlook 2020: Ten Investing Themes for the Coming Year (Cambridge Associates, Dec 2019).
    • Cambridge Associates highlights ten investing themes for 2020, predicated on their base case of a moderate global growth outlook.
      . Global real estate 2020 outlook (Nuveen). Nuveen outlines their views for the U.S. commercial real estate market in 2020, in which they believe that continuing U.S economic growth will continue to drive demand, but key risks remain.

– G.B.

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