Deloitte has produced a paper which tries to analyze the future of the super industry. There are lots of assumptions, some of them questionable, but it is a worthy exercise and well worth reading. Click here for the full report.

The 30-page report says that industry funds will continue to grow over the next 20 years, notwithstanding the faster growth of SMSFs and ‘retail funds’. In fact, according to Deloitte, industry funds will regain their position near the top, compared with SMSFs, by 2033.

Retail – largely bank-owned – funds will prosper more. SMSFs will account for $2.23 trillion in 2033, versus $1.93 trillion for industry funds and $2.5 trillion for retail funds.

The report predicts that SMSFs will be the largest segment in the post-retirement market, eclipsing both retail super and industry funds. Government funds will continue to grow at a “reasonable” rate but the corporate sector will remain flat.

“Given SMSF growth curves, it is easy to see why industry funds and the large wealth management businesses are exploring ways to capture a greater share of the fairly ‘new’ phenomenon of SMSF members and/or their assets,” the report says.